The idea of this tool is to try and predict the schools 5A*-C count by specifying how certain you are that specific ‘groups’ of pupils will achieve the measure;
- The Lower Boundary – this is the number of grades that pupils have above a C3 grade. Generally, we would expect pupils with a C2 or above to be secure. So, in the first category (green) you might set this to 7 and say that you are 100% certain that these pupils will achieve 5A*-C because you are confident in your predictions and this also allows for up to 2 grades to slip below a C. The contribution is the ‘adjusted’ number of pupils based on your certainty settings.
- The second category (with some support) - again, you set the lower boundary so you might set this to 4 (which means that pupils need 5 C3 grades here) and set the certainty slightly lower, depending on how confident you are in your predictions, bearing in mind that it is likely that the grades will slip without some support. If you set the boundary higher, say 6 or 7, then you might increase the certainty because of the potential to ‘save’ grades from slipping. Use this in conjunction with the C3/D1/D2/D3 columns to the right.
- The 3rd category (significant support) – this might be those pupils who are perhaps on the D1/C3 borderline in the majority of subjects. You could say that you want the boundary to be those who have a minimum of 4 C3 grades and then decide on how certain you are that they will go on to achieve 5A*-C. Use this in conjunction with the C3/D1/D2/D3 columns to the right.
- The 4th and final group – those not likely to attain 5A*-C would be all those excluded from the groups above. There may some pupils here that could still attain it with some support and so your certainty may not necessarily be 100% but you’d need to look at specific pupils and their D1-D3 grade counts.
This tool will work with the new 9-1 GCSEs but a grade 4 is counted as a C at the moment.